Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
86% | 14% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
86% | 14% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| SpaceX | 86% |
| xAI | 26% |
| Anthropic | 14% |
| OpenAI | 1% |
| Placeholder K | 0% |
| Placeholder O | 0% |
| Placeholder Q | 0% |
| Placeholder S | 0% |
| Placeholder AA | 0% |
| Placeholder AE | 0% |
| Placeholder AG | 0% |
| Placeholder AN | 0% |
| Placeholder AQ | 0% |
| Placeholder AT | 0% |
| Placeholder AV | 0% |
| Placeholder AW | 0% |
| Placeholder BC | 0% |
| Placeholder BG | 0% |
| Discord | 0% |
| Placeholder B | 0% |
| Placeholder E | 0% |
| ByteDance | 0% |
| Stripe | 0% |
| Kraken | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
| SHEIN | 0% |
| Waymo | 0% |
| Revolut | 0% |
| Perplexity AI | 0% |
| Placeholder A | 0% |
| Placeholder D | 0% |
| Placeholder G | 0% |
| Placeholder I | 0% |
| Databricks | 0% |
| Placeholder C | 0% |
| Placeholder F | 0% |
| Placeholder H | 0% |
| Placeholder J | 0% |
| Placeholder P | 0% |
| Placeholder R | 0% |
| Placeholder Z | 0% |
| Placeholder AB | 0% |
| Placeholder AD | 0% |
| Placeholder AF | 0% |
| Placeholder AH | 0% |
| Placeholder AJ | 0% |
| Placeholder AK | 0% |
| Placeholder AP | 0% |
| Placeholder AS | 0% |
| Placeholder AY | 0% |
| Placeholder BD | 0% |
| Placeholder BH | 0% |
| Placeholder L | 0% |
| Placeholder M | 0% |
| Placeholder T | 0% |
| Placeholder U | 0% |
| Placeholder W | 0% |
| Placeholder Y | 0% |
| Placeholder AI | 0% |
| Placeholder AL | 0% |
| Placeholder AR | 0% |
| Placeholder AU | 0% |
| Placeholder AZ | 0% |
| Placeholder BB | 0% |
| Placeholder BE | 0% |
| Placeholder BF | 0% |
| Placeholder N | 0% |
| Placeholder V | 0% |
| Placeholder X | 0% |
| Placeholder AC | 0% |
| Placeholder AM | 0% |
| Placeholder AO | 0% |
| Placeholder AX | 0% |
| Placeholder BA | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 86% probability to largest ipo by market cap in 2026?. This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve …
Methodology
This page reviews Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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