Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with commercial shipping suspended following a brief reopening and ships rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, adding up to 14 extra transit days. Current traffic sits near zero against a normal baseline of approximately 60 vessels daily, a stark standstill driven by the ongoing conflict with Iran that has halted the passage of roughly 20% of global oil and gas supplies.

Historical precedents frame the current 83% YES probability on Polymarket as optimistic given recent data. Even after a ceasefire was declared in April, traffic lingered at less than 10% of typical volumes, with only seven ships passing in a single day versus the usual 140 [3]. A June agreement guarantees immediate commercial navigation, yet the US naval blockade against Iranian ports is only mandated to lift by July 19, creating a critical dependency where Iran’s "best efforts" to restore traffic must materialise within weeks to meet the market’s December threshold [4].

Traders should monitor the July 19 blockade lift deadline and any announcements regarding Iran’s potential imposition of cryptocurrency tolls, which could deter normal transit volumes [3]. While the US and Iran memorandum of understanding stipulates that vessels navigate without tolls for 60 days, the lack of clarity on long-term Iranian authority over the strait remains a significant risk factor for the 60-vessel moving average required for a "Yes" resolution [4]. The market prices this contract today at 83% on the Polygon network using USDC, betting that the geopolitical pressure from President Trump will force a full reopening before the settlement window closes in 2026 [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.