South Carolina Senate Election Winner

Platform comparison

Market context

Lindsey Graham secured the Republican nomination for South Carolina’s 2026 Senate seat with 56.8% of the primary vote, only to die in office on 11 July, just two days before today [3][4]. This sudden vacancy has driven the crowd-implied probability for a Republican win to 20% YES, a stark departure from Graham’s pre-death dominance and the state’s historical Republican lean.

Historically, South Carolina Senate races have favoured Republicans, with the party holding the seat since 2011, but the 2026 scenario mirrors the 1998 death of Senator John Glenn in North Carolina, where a successor’s party struggled to maintain momentum without the incumbent’s name recognition [4]. The low probability reflects uncertainty over whether the Republican replacement candidate can replicate Graham’s appeal or if the Democratic nominee, Tim Andrews, who won his primary with 61.5%, will capitalise on the vacuum [4].

Traders should monitor the Republican party’s replacement nominee announcement, expected within days, and any shifts in early polling as the general election approaches on 3 November [3][4]. Campaign finance filings via the FEC will reveal whether the replacement secures sufficient funding to compete, while Andrews’ campaign strategy and any third-party entries could further alter the on-chain pricing of USDC conditional tokens on Polygon [8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.