SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13

Platform comparison

Market context

SpaceX’s thirteenth Starship flight test was cleanly aborted at T‑0 on Thursday, July 16, just before liftoff, when several engines failed to start and triggered an automatic hold [1][2]. The market on Polymarket.za.com prices a successful outcome at 0% YES today, reflecting that the launch window has closed for the day and no new date is confirmed [2][7]. On Polygon, traders are using USDC to buy and sell conditional tokens that resolve only if the vehicle lifts off and completes its planned suborbital profile, including the first deployment of 20 V3 Starlink satellites [9].

Historically, early Starship test flights have seen multiple scrubs and aborts before a successful lift‑off, with Flight 12 itself requiring a week of re‑checks after a static‑fire anomaly before proceeding [8]. The 0% price here aligns with that pattern: a T‑0 abort typically resets the schedule by days rather than ending the test campaign, and recycled attempts have followed similar last‑second holds in prior flights [2][3]. Until SpaceX announces a new window, the contract remains effectively dead for the current date, which is why the crowd‑implied probability sits at zero.

Traders should watch for an official SpaceX launch‑schedule update or an Elon Musk tweet confirming a new attempt, likely within a few days [2]. Key dependencies include the resolution of the engine‑start fault, a fresh 33‑engine static fire if required, and FAA range clearance for the next window [6][11]. The primary catalyst will be a posted launch date and time from SpaceX’s launches page or a verified social post, which would reset the conditional tokens’ resolution clock [1][2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.