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PGA Tour: BMW Championship Winner

How the prediction-market book is pricing "PGA Tour: BMW Championship Winner" right now, with a side-by-side platform comparison and zero-fee CTAs.

Wyndham Clark 10% Scottie Scheffler 8% J.J. Spaun 8% Ludvig Aberg 7% Volume: $133K Liquidity: $653K Closes: 23 Aug 2026
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PGA Tour: BMW Championship Winner

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
10% 90% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
10% 90% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Wyndham Clark10%
Scottie Scheffler8%
J.J. Spaun8%
Ludvig Aberg7%
Matt Fitzpatrick7%
Rory McIlroy7%
Chris Gotterup6%
Patrick Cantlay5%
Keith Mitchell5%
Xander Schauffele5%
Gary Woodland5%
Viktor Hovland4%
Tommy Fleetwood3%
Sam Burns2%
Russell Henley2%
Ryo Hisatsune2%
Si Woo Kim2%
Jake Knapp2%
Maverick McNealy2%
Collin Morikawa2%
Kristoffer Reitan2%
Justin Thomas2%
Michael Thorbjornsen2%
Akshay Bhatia1%
Michael Brennan1%
Jacob Bridgeman1%
Bud Cauley1%
Eric Cole1%
Nicolas Echavarria1%
Alex Fitzpatrick1%
Rickie Fowler1%
Ryan Fox1%
Ryan Gerard1%
Ben Griffin1%
Nicolai Hojgaard1%
Tom Kim1%
Kurt Kitayama1%
Min Woo Lee1%
Robert MacIntyre1%
Hideki Matsuyama1%
Alexander Noren1%
JT Poston1%
Aaron Rai1%
Justin Rose1%
Adam Scott1%
Alex Smalley1%
Sahith Theegala1%
Cameron Young1%
Matt McCarty0%
Sepp Straka0%
Player 00%
Player 10%
Player 20%
Player 30%
Player 40%
Player 50%
Player 60%
Player 70%
Player 80%
Player 90%
Player 100%
Player 110%
Player 120%
Player 130%
Player 140%
Player 150%
Player 160%
Player 170%
Player 180%
Player 190%
Other0%

Market context

The PGA Tour: BMW Championship Winner prediction market currently prices this outcome at 10% YES. This market will resolve according to the listed player who wins the 2026 BMW Championship tournament. If a listed player is eliminated from contention for the BMW Championship tournament based on th…

Methodology

This page reviews PGA Tour: BMW Championship Winner across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
and

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