Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
64% | 36% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
64% | 36% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 64% |
| CA Tucumán O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 51% |
| CA Huracán O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| CA Tucumán O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| CA Huracán 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| CA Huracán 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| CA Tucumán 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| CA Tucumán 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| CA Huracán O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| CA Huracán O/U 0.5 | 28% |
| CA Tucumán (-2.5) | 25% |
| CA Tucumán O/U 0.5 | 18% |
| O/U 1.5 | 8% |
| Both Teams to Score | 8% |
| CA Huracán (-1.5) | 5% |
| CA Huracán (-2.5) | 4% |
| CA Tucumán (-1.5) | 3% |
| O/U 2.5 | 3% |
| O/U 3.5 | 2% |
| O/U 4.5 | 2% |
| O/U 5.5 | 2% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CA Huracán 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CA Huracán 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CA Tucumán 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CA Tucumán 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Huracán vs Atlético Tucumán is priced by Polymarket’s **More Markets** contract at about **5% YES**, so the chain is implying only a slim chance that one of the listed side conditions resolves true by the 4 August settlement window. On Polymarket, that means traders are effectively paying with **USDC** on **Polygon**, where the outcome resolves through **conditional tokens** rather than a traditional sportsbook ticket.
That low print sits below the broader match market, where comparable pre-match books had Huracán as a modest favourite and Atlético Tucumán as the outsider, with one market listing Huracán around 47% to win and another showing a tight, low-scoring profile with Huracán +0.5 or under-goals angles priced in the favoured range.[1][2][8][12] For a Polymarket user, the key reading is that “More Markets” is not the same as the result market: a 5% YES can be consistent with a fairly ordinary league game if the specific conditional being asked for is niche or needs multiple things to break in sequence.
The main catalysts are line-ups, late injury or suspension news, and any market dependency on whether the match is completed in regulation on schedule, because that determines whether the conditional contract can settle cleanly. Pre-match previews and odds pages published on 3 August showed the fixture as live and fully priced, with both teams-to-score and low-total-goals markets drawing attention, so any late team-sheet surprise would matter more than broad season form.[1][8][12] Traders should also watch for postponement, abandonment, or calendar slippage around the 3 August 8:15 PM ET kick-off, since the settlement window ends shortly afterwards and the contract only resolves on the defined event path.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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