Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Cordenons: Max Hans Rehberg vs Guido Justo Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Cordenons: Max Hans Rehberg vs Guido Justo Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Cordenons: Max Hans Rehberg vs Guido Justo Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Cordenons: Max Hans Rehberg vs Guido Justo Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Cordenons: Max Hans Rehberg vs Guido Justo | 0% |
| Cordenons: Max Hans Rehberg vs Guido Justo Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Cordenons: Max Hans Rehberg vs Guido Justo Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Cordenons: Max Hans Rehberg vs Guido Justo Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Cordenons: Max Hans Rehberg vs Guido Justo Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Cordenons: Max Hans Rehberg vs Guido Justo Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Cordenons: Max Hans Rehberg vs Guido Justo Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Cordenons: Max Hans Rehberg vs Guido Justo Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| Cordenons: Max Hans Rehberg vs Guido Justo Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Cordenons: Max Hans Rehberg vs Guido Justo Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Cordenons: Max Hans Rehberg vs Guido Justo Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of cordenons: max hans rehberg vs guido justo. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Max Hans Rehberg and Guido Justo in the Cordenons, originally scheduled for July 13, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to …
Methodology
We track Cordenons: Max Hans Rehberg vs Guido Justo across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Cordenons: Max Hans Rehberg vs Guido Justo on PolyGram
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