Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Clube do Remo O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Clube do Remo 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 82% |
| Both Teams to Score | 76% |
| Fluminense FC O/U 0.5 | 76% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 51% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Fluminense FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Fluminense FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Clube do Remo 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Clube do Remo 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Fluminense FC O/U 1.5 | 39% |
| Clube do Remo O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| O/U 3.5 | 21% |
| Fluminense FC O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Fluminense FC (-1.5) | 11% |
| Clube do Remo (-1.5) | 7% |
| O/U 4.5 | 7% |
| Fluminense FC (-2.5) | 2% |
| Clube do Remo (-2.5) | 2% |
| O/U 5.5 | 2% |
| Clube do Remo O/U 2.5 | 2% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 1% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Fluminense FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| Fluminense FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Clube do Remo 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of fluminense fc vs. clube do remo - more markets. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. More markets for the Brazil Série A game, scheduled for August 22 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodology
We track Fluminense FC vs. Clube do Remo - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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