Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
89% | 11% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
89% | 11% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 42.5 | 89% |
| Spread -13.5 | 87% |
| Missouri State O/U 6.5 | 87% |
| Spread -16.5 | 84% |
| Spread -17.5 | 81% |
| O/U 48.5 | 78% |
| Spread -20.5 | 75% |
| Missouri State O/U 9.5 | 73% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 71% |
| Spread -23.5 | 70% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 70% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 70% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 70% |
| O/U 54.5 | 66% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 66% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 65% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 64% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 63% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 62% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 57% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 56% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 56% |
| O/U 58.5 | 55% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 55% |
| 2Q O/U 20.5 | 53% |
| Spread -30.5 | 52% |
| O/U 60.5 | 52% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 52% |
| Spread -28.5 | 51% |
| O/U 50.5 | 51% |
| O/U 56.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| Spread -25.5 | 50% |
| Spread -26.5 | 50% |
| Spread -27.5 | 50% |
| Spread -29.5 | 50% |
| Spread -31.5 | 50% |
| Spread -32.5 | 50% |
| Spread -36.5 | 50% |
| Spread -37.5 | 50% |
| Spread -39.5 | 50% |
| Spread -40.5 | 50% |
| Spread -42.5 | 50% |
| Spread -44.5 | 50% |
| Spread -47.5 | 50% |
| Spread -50.5 | 50% |
| O/U 38.5 | 50% |
| O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| O/U 46.5 | 50% |
| O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| O/U 68.5 | 50% |
| O/U 70.5 | 50% |
| O/U 74.5 | 50% |
| O/U 76.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -18.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -22.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -25.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -18.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| SMU O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| SMU O/U 43.5 | 50% |
| SMU O/U 46.5 | 50% |
| SMU O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| SMU O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State 1H O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State 1H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State 1H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| SMU 1H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| SMU 1H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| SMU 1H O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State 2H O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| SMU 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| SMU 2H O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| SMU 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| SMU O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Missouri State vs. SMU: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Missouri State vs. SMU: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State vs. SMU: Total Touchdowns O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| SMU 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| SMU 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| SMU Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| SMU Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| SMU Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State vs. SMU: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State vs. SMU: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State vs. SMU: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| SMU O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 49% |
| O/U 72.5 | 48% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 48% |
| 1H O/U 34.5 | 47% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 47% |
| O/U 62.5 | 45% |
| Spread -33.5 | 42% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 42% |
| Spread -34.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 40% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -23.5 | 37% |
| 1H O/U 37.5 | 37% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 37% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 36% |
| Spread -35.5 | 35% |
| O/U 66.5 | 34% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 33% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 32% |
| 2Q Spread -11.5 | 30% |
| Spread -38.5 | 29% |
| 2Q O/U 23.5 | 28% |
| Spread -41.5 | 24% |
| O/U 78.5 | 13% |
| Spread -48.5 | 12% |
| Spread -51.5 | 9% |
| Spread -54.5 | 6% |
| Missouri State vs. SMU | 2% |
Market context
Missouri State vs. SMU — current market-implied probability: 89%. In the upcoming college football game between Missouri State and SMU, scheduled for September 26 at 9:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Missouri State" if Missouri State win the game. This market …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $159K.
Methodology
We track Missouri State vs. SMU across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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