Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Betclic Apogee Esports (-3.5) vs Liquid (+3.5) | 90% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Betclic Apogee Esports (-6.5) vs Liquid (+6.5) | 45% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Liquid (-6.5) vs Betclic Apogee Esports (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Betclic Apogee Esports (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Liquid (-3.5) vs Betclic Apogee Esports (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Liquid (-3.5) vs Betclic Apogee Esports (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Liquid (-3.5) vs Betclic Apogee Esports (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Liquid (-6.5) vs Betclic Apogee Esports (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Liquid (-9.5) vs Betclic Apogee Esports (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Liquid (-6.5) vs Betclic Apogee Esports (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Liquid (-9.5) vs Betclic Apogee Esports (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map Handicap: BCA (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, counter-strike: betclic apogee esports vs liquid (bo3) - stake pulse beat i playoffs stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Grand final match between Betclic Apogee Esports and Liquid in the Stake Pulse Beat I Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 5 at 1:00PM …
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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