Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 73% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 73% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: BORRACHEIROS (-3.5) vs MEIA NOITE (+3.5) | 55% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: BORRACHEIROS (-6.5) vs MEIA NOITE (+6.5) | 55% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MEIA NOITE (-3.5) vs BORRACHEIROS (+3.5) | 45% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MEIA NOITE (-6.5) vs BORRACHEIROS (+6.5) | 45% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 45% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 45% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MEIA NOITE (-6.5) vs BORRACHEIROS (+6.5) | 45% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 45% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MEIA NOITE (-3.5) vs BORRACHEIROS (+3.5) | 45% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: BORRACHEIROS (-9.5) vs MEIA NOITE (+9.5) | 45% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 45% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MEIA NOITE (-9.5) vs BORRACHEIROS (+9.5) | 28% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MEIA NOITE (-12.5) vs BORRACHEIROS (+12.5) | 28% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 25% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: MEIA NOITE (-1.5) vs BORRACHEIROS (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MEIA NOITE (-3.5) vs BORRACHEIROS (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MEIA NOITE (-6.5) vs BORRACHEIROS (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MEIA NOITE (-9.5) vs BORRACHEIROS (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: CHAMA (-1.5) vs MEIA NOITE (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BORRACHEIROS (-3.5) vs MEIA NOITE (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 36.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of counter-strike: borracheiros vs meia noite (bo3) - betboom storm group stage. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 5 match between BORRACHEIROS and MEIA NOITE in the BetBoom Storm Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 10 at 1:00PM ET. This m…
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
Trade Counter-Strike: BORRACHEIROS vs MEIA NOITE (BO3) - B… on PolyGram
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