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Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Virtus.pro (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group D

How the prediction-market book is pricing "Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Virtus.pro (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group D" right now, with a side-by-side platform comparison and zero-fee CTAs.

First Blood in Game 1? 91% Ends in Daytime 90% Any Player Ultra Kill 90% Ends in Daytime 50% Volume: $322K Liquidity: $274K Closes: 10 Jul 2026
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Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Virtus.pro (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group D

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 91% 9% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 91% 9% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
First Blood in Game 1?91%
Ends in Daytime90%
Any Player Ultra Kill90%
Ends in Daytime50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks50%
Any Player Ultra Kill50%
Any Player Rampage50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 2?50%
Any Player Rampage25%
Both Teams Beat Roshan10%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks10%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1?10%
Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1?10%
Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 1?10%
Total Kills Over/Under 35.5 in Game 1?10%
Game 2 Winner2%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?1%
Game 1 Winner0%
Match Winner0%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 91% YES probability for Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Virtus.pro (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group D. This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Inner Circle and Virtus.pro in the Esports World Cup Group D, initially scheduled for July 10 at 12:30PM ET. This market will resolve to "Inner Circle" …

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Oliver HughesOliver HughesBlockchain & Crypto ReporterandEmma RobertsEmma RobertsFinancial Journalist

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