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Argentina vs. Cabo Verde - Player Props

Comparison of odds and platforms for "Argentina vs. Cabo Verde - Player Props" — sourced live from the Polymarket order book, curated by PolyGram.

Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shots 89% Lautaro Martínez: 2+ shots 77% Lionel Messi: 1+ goals 66% Lionel Messi: 1+ goals + assists 65% Volume: $168K Liquidity: $614K Closes: 3 Jul 2026
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Argentina vs. Cabo Verde - Player Props

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
89% 11% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
89% 11% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shots89%
Lautaro Martínez: 2+ shots77%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals66%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals + assists65%
Dailon Livramento: 1+ shots55%
Lautaro Martínez: 3+ shots54%
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals51%
Gilson Benchimol: 2+ shots on target50%
Juan Musso: 3+ saves50%
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals + assists50%
Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots50%
Lionel Messi: 1+ shots on target49%
Dailon Livramento: 2+ shots on target48%
Gilson Benchimol: 1+ shots on target48%
José Manuel López: 1+ shots on target48%
José Manuel López: 2+ shots on target48%
José Manuel López: 3+ shots on target48%
José Manuel López: 4+ shots on target48%
Jovane Cabral: 2+ shots on target48%
Jovane Cabral: 3+ shots on target48%
Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots on target48%
Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots on target48%
Julián Álvarez: 4+ shots on target48%
Lautaro Martínez: 4+ shots on target48%
Lionel Messi: 4+ shots on target48%
Nuno Jóia: 1+ shots on target48%
Nuno Jóia: 2+ shots on target48%
Juan Musso: 2+ saves48%
Juan Musso: 4+ saves48%
Juan Musso: 5+ saves48%
Vózinha: 2+ saves48%
Vózinha: 3+ saves48%
Vózinha: 4+ saves48%
Dailon Livramento: 2+ goals + assists48%
Dailon Livramento: 3+ goals + assists48%
Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals + assists48%
Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals + assists48%
Julián Álvarez: 4+ goals + assists48%
Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals + assists48%
Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals + assists48%
Lautaro Martínez: 4+ goals + assists48%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals + assists48%
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals + assists48%
Lionel Messi: 4+ goals + assists48%
Lionel Messi: 3+ shots on target47%
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shots on target44%
Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots44%
Lionel Messi: 2+ shots on target41%
Lautaro Martínez: 4+ shots38%
Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots37%
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists35%
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals + assists35%
Jovane Cabral: 1+ shots32%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals31%
Vózinha: 5+ saves31%
Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots on target30%
Julián Álvarez: 4+ shots30%
Gilson Benchimol: 1+ shots27%
Lautaro Martínez: 2+ shots on target26%
Nuno Jóia: 1+ shots25%
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals24%
Lautaro Martínez: 5+ shots24%
Dailon Livramento: 4+ goals + assists24%
Julián Álvarez: 5+ shots22%
Jovane Cabral: 2+ shots20%
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assists20%
Dailon Livramento: 2+ shots19%
Dailon Livramento: 1+ shots on target19%
Gilson Benchimol: 2+ shots17%
Julián Álvarez: 1+ assists17%
Nuno Jóia: 2+ shots16%
José Manuel López: 1+ goals14%
Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals14%
Lautaro Martínez: 3+ shots on target14%
Jovane Cabral: 1+ shots on target13%
Gilson Benchimol: 3+ shots12%
Dailon Livramento: 2+ assists12%
Lionel Messi: 2+ assists12%
Dailon Livramento: 1+ goals + assists12%
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals11%
Dailon Livramento: 1+ goals10%
José Manuel López: 2+ goals10%
Dailon Livramento: 3+ shots10%
Jovane Cabral: 3+ shots8%
Jovane Cabral: 4+ shots8%
Nuno Jóia: 3+ shots8%
Jovane Cabral: 1+ goals7%
Gilson Benchimol: 4+ shots7%
Nuno Jóia: 4+ shots7%
Jovane Cabral: 5+ shots6%
Gilson Benchimol: 1+ goals5%
José Manuel López: 3+ goals5%
Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals5%
Nuno Jóia: 1+ goals5%
Dailon Livramento: 1+ assists5%
Dailon Livramento: 4+ shots4%
Nuno Jóia: 2+ goals3%
Julián Álvarez: 2+ assists3%
Lautaro Martínez: 2+ assists3%
Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals2%
Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals2%
Dailon Livramento: 2+ goals1%
Gilson Benchimol: 2+ goals1%
Jovane Cabral: 2+ goals1%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, argentina vs. cabo verde - player props stands at 89% likelihood according to current market consensus. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Argentina and Cabo Verde, scheduled for July 3 at 6:00 PM ET.

Methodology

We track Argentina vs. Cabo Verde - Player Props across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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