Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots | 100% |
| Casemiro: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Ayase Ueda: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Ayase Ueda: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Casemiro: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Casemiro: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 1+ shots on target | 100% |
| Casemiro: 1+ shots on target | 100% |
| Casemiro: 2+ shots on target | 100% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots on target | 100% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Rayan: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 1+ assists | 100% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots | 100% |
| Casemiro: 1+ goals + assists | 100% |
| Endrick: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots on target | 100% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots on target | 100% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 1+ goals + assists | 100% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 3+ shots | 100% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 4+ shots | 100% |
| Junya Itō: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Ayase Ueda: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alisson: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Rayan: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Rayan: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Rayan: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Neymar Jr: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Neymar Jr: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Neymar Jr: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Neymar Jr: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Rayan: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Rayan: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Rayan: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Rayan: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Rayan: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Daizen Maeda: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Daizen Maeda: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Keito Nakamura: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Keito Nakamura: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Neymar Jr: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Neymar Jr: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Rayan: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Rayan: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Ayase Ueda: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Ayase Ueda: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Daizen Maeda: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Daizen Maeda: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Keito Nakamura: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Keito Nakamura: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Neymar Jr: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Neymar Jr: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Neymar Jr: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Koki Ogawa: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Koki Ogawa: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Luiz Henrique: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Luiz Henrique: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Luiz Henrique: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Ayase Ueda: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Endrick: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Endrick: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Koki Ogawa: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Koki Ogawa: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Koki Ogawa: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Neymar Jr: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Neymar Jr: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Neymar Jr: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Rayan: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Ayase Ueda: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Ayase Ueda: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Casemiro: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Casemiro: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Daizen Maeda: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Daizen Maeda: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Keito Nakamura: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Keito Nakamura: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Matheus Cunha: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Neymar Jr: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Ayase Ueda: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Endrick: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Endrick: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Endrick: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Casemiro: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Casemiro: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Casemiro: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Daizen Maeda: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Daizen Maeda: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Daizen Maeda: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Daizen Maeda: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Keito Nakamura: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Keito Nakamura: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Keito Nakamura: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Keito Nakamura: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Koki Ogawa: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Ayase Ueda: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Ayase Ueda: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Endrick: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Endrick: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Igor Thiago: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Igor Thiago: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Koki Ogawa: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Koki Ogawa: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Casemiro: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Daizen Maeda: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Daizen Maeda: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Keito Nakamura: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Keito Nakamura: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Neymar Jr: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Neymar Jr: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Neymar Jr: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Rayan: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Rayan: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Rayan: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Rayan: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Rayan: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Alisson: 3+ saves | 0% |
| Alisson: 4+ saves | 0% |
| Alisson: 5+ saves | 0% |
| Keisuke Ōsako: 2+ saves | 0% |
| Keisuke Ōsako: 3+ saves | 0% |
| Keisuke Ōsako: 4+ saves | 0% |
| Keisuke Ōsako: 5+ saves | 0% |
| Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Ayase Ueda: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Ayase Ueda: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Luiz Henrique: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Luiz Henrique: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Luiz Henrique: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Luiz Henrique: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Luiz Henrique: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Neymar Jr: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Raphinha: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Raphinha: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Raphinha: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Endrick: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Endrick: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Igor Thiago: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Endrick: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Endrick: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Luiz Henrique: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Neymar Jr: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Raphinha: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Raphinha: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Raphinha: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Raphinha: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Danilo Santos: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Danilo Santos: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Danilo Santos: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Danilo Santos: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Danilo Santos: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Danilo Santos: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Danilo Santos: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Danilo Santos: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Danilo Santos: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Danilo Santos: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Danilo Santos: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Danilo Santos: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Koki Ogawa: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Koki Ogawa: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Koki Ogawa: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Koki Ogawa: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Luiz Henrique: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Luiz Henrique: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Luiz Henrique: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Ayase Ueda: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Junya Itō: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Junya Itō: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Junya Itō: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Junya Itō: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Keito Nakamura: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Junya Itō: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Junya Itō: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Casemiro: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Casemiro: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Daizen Maeda: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Daizen Maeda: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Junya Itō: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Junya Itō: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Junya Itō: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Keito Nakamura: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Keito Nakamura: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Junya Itō: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Junya Itō: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Junya Itō: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Junya Itō: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
Market context
The Brazil vs. Japan - Player Props prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Brazil and Japan, scheduled for June 29 at 1:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page reviews Brazil vs. Japan - Player Props across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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