Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots | 94% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots | 94% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ shots | 84% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shots on target | 77% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots | 75% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots | 75% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ shots | 75% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ shots | 71% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ shots | 70% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals + assists | 68% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots | 63% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots | 60% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals | 59% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shots | 57% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots | 57% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots | 56% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ shots | 55% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots | 52% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexander Isak: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Thuram: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Thuram: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Thuram: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Thuram: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rayan Cherki: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mike Maignan: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Mike Maignan: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Mike Maignan: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alexander Isak: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexander Isak: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Mike Maignan: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 5+ shots | 48% |
| Viktor Johansson: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Viktor Johansson: 4+ saves | 48% |
| Viktor Johansson: 3+ saves | 48% |
| Viktor Johansson: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Alexander Isak: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ shots | 47% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots | 47% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots | 47% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 5+ shots | 45% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ shots | 43% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals | 42% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ assists | 41% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals + assists | 37% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots on target | 37% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots | 36% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Théo Hernández: 3+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots | 33% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 4+ shots | 33% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots | 32% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals | 32% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists | 31% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ shots on target | 30% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ shots on target | 30% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ goals + assists | 29% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ goals + assists | 29% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals | 26% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ shots | 26% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Alexander Isak: 3+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists | 24% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots on target | 24% |
| Michael Olise: 5+ shots | 23% |
| Bradley Barcola: 5+ shots | 23% |
| Rayan Cherki: 4+ shots | 22% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots on target | 21% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Rayan Cherki: 5+ shots | 20% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shots on target | 19% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Théo Hernández: 3+ shots | 18% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ shots | 17% |
| Théo Hernández: 4+ shots | 17% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ shots | 16% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ assists | 15% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ assists | 14% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals | 8% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Alexander Isak: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ assists | 7% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Alexander Isak: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots | 3% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 3+ shots | 3% |
| Marcus Thuram: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Marcus Thuram: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots on target | 2% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Théo Hernández: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Désiré Doué: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Marcus Thuram: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Alexander Isak: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ goals | 1% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 94% YES probability for France vs. Sweden - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between France and Sweden, scheduled for June 30 at 5:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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Trade France vs. Sweden - Player Props on PolyGram
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