Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
52% | 48% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
52% | 48% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ shots | 52% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals + assists | 52% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Edin Džeko: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Edin Džeko: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Tim Weah: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Folarin Balogun: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Gio Reyna: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Malik Tillman: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Edin Džeko: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 3+ shots | 47% |
| Chris Brady: 3+ saves | 47% |
| Chris Brady: 4+ saves | 47% |
| Chris Brady: 5+ saves | 47% |
| Martin Zlomislić: 2+ saves | 47% |
| Martin Zlomislić: 3+ saves | 47% |
| Martin Zlomislić: 4+ saves | 47% |
| Martin Zlomislić: 5+ saves | 47% |
| Gio Reyna: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Tim Weah: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ shots | 47% |
| Weston McKennie: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Chris Brady: 2+ saves | 46% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ shots | 43% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ shots | 42% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ shots | 41% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals | 38% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals | 35% |
| Edin Džeko: 1+ goals | 32% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ assists | 31% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 1+ assists | 27% |
| Tim Weah: 1+ assists | 27% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ assists | 27% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ assists | 26% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ assists | 26% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ goals | 24% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals | 23% |
| Edin Džeko: 1+ assists | 22% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals | 18% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Tim Weah: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Tim Weah: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Tim Weah: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Tim Weah: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Edin Džeko: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Edin Džeko: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Edin Džeko: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ goals | 1% |
Market context
Market consensus: 52% chance of united states vs. bosnia and herzegovina - player props. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between United States and Bosnia and Herzegovina, scheduled for July 1 at 8:00 PM ET.
Methodology
We track United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina - Player Props across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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