PGA Tour: The Open Championship Winner

Platform comparison

Market context

Scottie Scheffler holds the Claret Jug after his 2025 triumph, making him the +700 favourite to defend the title at the 2026 Open Championship, while Rory McIlroy sits second at +850 [1][2]. On Polymarket, the contract for a specific listed player currently trades at an 11% implied probability, a figure that reflects the steep odds against any single golfer in a field where Scheffler’s book odds translate to roughly 12.5% and McIlroy’s to 10.5% [1].

Historically, defending Open champions rarely secure back-to-back wins, with the last repeat victor occurring decades ago, which tempers enthusiasm for Scheffler despite his top ranking [2]. The current 11% price aligns with comparable major markets where the favourite’s implied chance often sits between 10% and 15%, suggesting the market is pricing in the high volatility of golf rather than underestimating the favourite’s form.

Traders should monitor Scheffler’s official entry confirmation and any injury updates before the tournament begins, as elimination triggers an immediate "No" resolution on-chain [1]. Key catalysts include the final field list release and tee-time announcements, which will be settled instantly via USDC on Polygon using conditional tokens once the PGA Tour declares a winner or elimination [2].

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.