Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| CA Unión 1 - 2 CA Central Córdoba | 100% |
| CA Unión 0 - 0 CA Central Córdoba | 0% |
| CA Unión 0 - 1 CA Central Córdoba | 0% |
| CA Unión 1 - 0 CA Central Córdoba | 0% |
| CA Unión 0 - 2 CA Central Córdoba | 0% |
| CA Unión 1 - 1 CA Central Córdoba | 0% |
| CA Unión 2 - 0 CA Central Córdoba | 0% |
| CA Unión 0 - 3 CA Central Córdoba | 0% |
| CA Unión 2 - 1 CA Central Córdoba | 0% |
| CA Unión 3 - 0 CA Central Córdoba | 0% |
| CA Unión 1 - 3 CA Central Córdoba | 0% |
| CA Unión 2 - 2 CA Central Córdoba | 0% |
| CA Unión 3 - 1 CA Central Córdoba | 0% |
| CA Unión 2 - 3 CA Central Córdoba | 0% |
| CA Unión 3 - 2 CA Central Córdoba | 0% |
| CA Unión 3 - 3 CA Central Córdoba | 0% |
| Any Other Score | 0% |
Market context
CA Unión will host CA Central Córdoba in a Primera División Argentina fixture on 10 August 2026, with kickoff at 8:15 PM ET. The market settles on the exact final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. Any outcome not explicitly listed resolves to "Any Other Score." Polymarket currently prices this contract at 0% YES, reflecting either that the specific outcome in question carries negligible historical frequency or that traders have not yet populated liquidity across the full matrix of possible scorelines.
Exact-score markets in Argentine football typically see probability mass concentrated on low-scoring results—1–0, 2–1, 0–0, and 2–0 finishes account for roughly 60–65% of all matches in the division over recent seasons. Unión and Central Córdoba both operate in the mid-table range, with neither side known for prolific attacking output. The 0% reading suggests either that the listed outcome carries structural rarity (such as a 5–4 scoreline) or that the market has simply not yet attracted sufficient order flow to establish baseline pricing.
Traders should monitor team news through early August, particularly injury status for key attacking players at either club. Central Córdoba's fixture congestion in the weeks prior to this match may affect squad rotation decisions. Polymarket's settlement window closes 11 August at 00:15 UTC, allowing roughly 4 hours post-match for result confirmation. Conditional token mechanics on Polygon mean position holders can exit before final whistle if live-match data shifts expectations materially.
Methodology
This page reviews CA Unión vs. CA Central Córdoba - Exact Score across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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