Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Croatia Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Damir Dzumhur | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Croatia Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Damir Dzumhur Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Croatia Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Damir Dzumhur Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Croatia Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Damir Dzumhur Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Croatia Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Damir Dzumhur Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Croatia Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Damir Dzumhur Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Croatia Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Damir Dzumhur Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Croatia Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Damir Dzumhur Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Croatia Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Damir Dzumhur Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Croatia Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Damir Dzumhur Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Damir Dzumhur Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Damir Dzumhur Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Damir Dzumhur Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Damir Dzumhur Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, croatia open: daniel merida aguilar vs damir dzumhur stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Daniel Merida Aguilar and Damir Dzumhur in the Croatia Open, originally scheduled for July 18, 2026 at 1:00PM ET. This market will r…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Croatia Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Damir Dzumhur on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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