Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Generali Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Marco Trungelliti | 0% |
| Generali Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Marco Trungelliti Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Generali Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Marco Trungelliti Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Generali Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Marco Trungelliti Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Generali Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Marco Trungelliti Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Generali Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Marco Trungelliti Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Generali Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Marco Trungelliti Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Generali Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Marco Trungelliti Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Generali Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Marco Trungelliti Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Generali Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Marco Trungelliti Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Generali Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Marco Trungelliti Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Generali Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Marco Trungelliti Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Generali Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Marco Trungelliti Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| Generali Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Marco Trungelliti Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to generali open: juan manuel cerundolo vs marco trungelliti. This market refers to the tennis match between Juan Manuel Cerundolo and Marco Trungelliti in the Generali Open, originally scheduled for July 20, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Juan…
Methodology
We track Generali Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Marco Trungelliti across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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