National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Corentin Moutet

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket’s contract is pricing **Rafael Jodar** at about **73%** today, which means the market is assigning him a clear edge in this National Bank Open meeting on Polygon, with USDC settled through conditional tokens rather than a simple win/lose bet. That price is stronger than a coin flip, but it still leaves meaningful room for a result-driven reprice if the draw, match status, or advancement path changes before settlement on 13 August.

The current shape of the market is consistent with the wider tennis data: Jodar is rated higher on several live previews and is coming in with a much stronger 2026 season record than Moutet, while the pair have no prior head-to-head meeting to anchor a direct comparison.[1][3][4][11] At the same time, Moutet brings the more established tour resume and a live ranking gap that keeps this from being a one-way price.[4][11] In that context, the 73% print looks like a favourite line, not a certainty, especially for a first meeting where small sample effects matter.

A trader should watch for the official ATP and tournament schedule, because this market resolves on who advances, not just who is nominally listed first. Tennis reporting currently shows the match as a Round 1 or Round 2 event depending on the feed, which is the sort of administrative detail that can matter if there is a withdrawal, walkover or rescheduling.[5][10][11] Any late player withdrawal, delayed start, or abandonment matters for Polymarket’s on-chain resolution path: if nobody advances within seven days of the scheduled date, the contract falls back to 50-50, so timing and completion status are as important as form.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.