Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Croatia Open, Qualification: Lukas Neumayer vs Marko Topo Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Croatia Open, Qualification: Lukas Neumayer vs Marko Topo Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Croatia Open, Qualification: Lukas Neumayer vs Marko Topo Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Croatia Open, Qualification: Lukas Neumayer vs Marko Topo Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Croatia Open, Qualification: Lukas Neumayer vs Marko Topo Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Croatia Open, Qualification: Lukas Neumayer vs Marko Topo Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Croatia Open, Qualification: Lukas Neumayer vs Marko Topo Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Croatia Open, Qualification: Lukas Neumayer vs Marko Topo Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Croatia Open, Qualification: Lukas Neumayer vs Marko Topo Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Croatia Open, Qualification: Lukas Neumayer vs Marko Topo | 0% |
| Croatia Open, Qualification: Lukas Neumayer vs Marko Topo Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Croatia Open, Qualification: Lukas Neumayer vs Marko Topo Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Croatia Open, Qualification: Lukas Neumayer vs Marko Topo Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Croatia Open, Qualification: Lukas Neumayer vs Marko Topo Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Croatia Open, Qualification: Lukas Neumayer vs Marko Topo. This market refers to the tennis match between Lukas Neumayer and Marko Topo in the Croatia Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for July 12, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Luk…
Methodology
This page reviews Croatia Open, Qualification: Lukas Neumayer vs Marko Topo across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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