Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| RKS Raków Częstochowa (-1.5) | 100% |
| RKS Raków Częstochowa (-2.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| RKS Raków Częstochowa O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| RKS Raków Częstochowa O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| RKS Raków Częstochowa O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| RKS Raków Częstochowa 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| RKS Raków Częstochowa 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| RKS Raków Częstochowa 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| RKS Raków Częstochowa 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Valletta FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Valletta FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Valletta FC O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Valletta FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Valletta FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Valletta FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Valletta FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Valletta FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Valletta FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Team to Advance | 0% |
Market context
Polymarket is pricing this **More Markets** contract at **0% YES** on USDC locked in a Polygon-based conditional token, which means the crowd is treating the listed extras around Valletta FC v RKS Raków Częstochowa as having no live chance of resolving positively at the moment. The real-world fixture is the UEFA Europa Conference League qualifier second leg, with the return in Valletta scheduled for 30 July at 19:30 local time, after Raków won the first leg 3-1 in Częstochowa.[1][8][13]
That 3-1 first-leg result is the main historical frame for reading a zero-implied price here: Raków led from a position of strength, but Valletta did score away and briefly made the tie less one-sided, which is why any “more markets” outcome tied to a late swing, extra goals, or another match-specific condition would already need a sharp deviation from the baseline.[1][5][15][16] For Polymarket users, this is the sort of set-up where the token price is driven less by abstract team strength and more by whether the settlement condition was already effectively decided by the first leg, the return-leg scoreline, or a related match event.[1][6][13]
The practical catalysts are straightforward: confirmed line-ups, any late injury or rotation news, and whether the scheduled kick-off and officiating setup remain unchanged before settlement closes at 17:30 UTC. UEFA lists the match at Municipal Sport Stadium “Raków” in Częstochowa with Turkish referee Kadir Sağlam and assistants Anıl Usta, Mehmet Salih Mazlum and Omer Faruk Turtay, while live coverage and match trackers confirm the first-leg context and the second-leg timing.[8][4][6] For traders, the relevant on-chain question is whether any new information could still move the conditional-token outcome before the window shuts, or whether the market is simply marking a completed state.[1][8]
Methodology
This page reviews Valletta FC vs. RKS Raków Częstochowa - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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