The Hundred: London Spirit vs MI London

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at **0% YES** in USDC on Polygon, so the market is effectively treating a London Spirit win over MI London as already unavailable under the current on-chain odds. Because the contract settles to the match result under The Hundred’s playing conditions, any ordinary win, DLS-adjusted result, forfeit or declared winner counts in the usual way, while a tie would depend on whether the competition uses an on-field tiebreak.

Recent history gives this derby some useful context. London Spirit beat MI London by seven wickets on 29 July 2026, chasing 165 with 11 balls remaining, and then MI London edged the return fixture on 6 August 2026 by four wickets with six balls left, showing how quickly the balance can swing in this matchup[8][3]. ESPN’s head-to-head record for the 2026 season also shows the sides had been trading results inside a tightly contested London rivalry, rather than producing one-sided margins every time[11]. For a market sitting at zero, the main question is whether there is any pathway left for a Spirit win through the match conditions rather than raw team strength.

A trader watching this contract would focus on the official scorecard, toss, team news, and any weather or interruptions that could bring DLS into play, because those are the mechanisms that can convert a live position into a settled result on the chain. The fixture was scheduled for 6 August at Lord’s with a 15:00 start, and live coverage listed the match there with the toss and umpiring details once play began[4][9]. In practical terms, the relevant dependency is not sentiment but whether the result is confirmed by The Hundred’s match referee and recorded in the official competition feed before the settlement window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track The Hundred: London Spirit vs MI London across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.