The Hundred, Women: Manchester Super Giants vs Birmingham Phoenix

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket’s contract on Manchester Super Giants Women v Birmingham Phoenix Women is trading around **50% YES**, which is broadly consistent with a match that the market views as close to even on the available information. The event is the women’s Hundred fixture scheduled for 26 July 2026, and settlement will follow the final result as recorded by ESPNcricinfo; on-chain positions are held as **USDC** on **Polygon** through conditional tokens, so the contract pays out only on the published match outcome, including an on-field tiebreak if one is used.[1][2]

For context, the two sides have already met in the 2026 women’s competition, with ESPN’s series page showing Manchester Super Giants Women and Birmingham Phoenix Women in the early rounds, and Birmingham Phoenix later beating Manchester Originals Women by 16 runs in the previous season.[1][6] That kind of baseline matters because a 50% price usually reflects a market that sees neither side as a clear favourite once venue, current form, and team news are balanced. In practice, traders often read a flat line like this as a sign that small edges in lineup quality or toss-related conditions could move the price more than the underlying matchup alone.[1][6]

The main catalysts to watch are the confirmed XI, toss, pitch and conditions at Trent Bridge, and any late scheduling or playing-condition updates; a preview published before the match listed the venue as Trent Bridge, Nottingham and the start time as 3:30 pm IST, which aligns with a morning GMT start.[3][2] Because the market resolves from the official score result, the key dependency is not public commentary but whether the match is completed normally, shortened, or decided by a tiebreak, with all such on-field rulings treated as a valid win for settlement.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews The Hundred, Women: Manchester Super Giants vs Birmingham Phoenix across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.