The Hundred, Women: Manchester Super Giants vs Welsh Fire

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Old Trafford women’s Hundred fixture at **0% YES**, so the contract is effectively treating a Manchester Super Giants win as absent from the market even though the match is scheduled to decide on ordinary playing conditions and any official on-field result would settle the token in the usual way. The underlying game is Manchester Super Giants Women vs Welsh Fire Women in The Hundred, Women, with Welsh Fire winning the toss and choosing to field, which makes the live cricket state more relevant than the pre-match headline price on Polygon USDC conditional tokens.[3][13]

The table context explains why a zero print is extreme. Before this game, Manchester Super Giants were third with 14 points from five matches and a healthy net run rate, while Welsh Fire were fourth on eight points and still within touching distance of the playoff places.[2][4][5] ESPN’s report after the match states Welsh Fire won by three wickets, but before the result that scoreline was not reflected in the market, so traders watching this contract would have needed to compare the live price against standings, toss, and in-play scoring rather than the season narrative alone.[1]

For settlement, the key catalysts are straightforward: any official completion, including DLS/DRS outcomes, over-rate penalties, forfeits, walkovers, or a tiebreak such as a Super Over, resolves as an ordinary win under the market rules. A washout or abandonment without an official result is the main draw scenario, and the price therefore depends heavily on whether play starts on time, whether interruptions develop, and whether the competition can record a winner before the settlement window closes on 12 August.[8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews The Hundred, Women: Manchester Super Giants vs Welsh Fire across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.