Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map Handicap: NV (-1.5) vs Benched gods (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 91% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 91% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Benched gods (-3.5) vs NEW VISION (+3.5) | 48% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Benched gods (-3.5) vs NEW VISION (+3.5) | 10% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map Handicap: BG (-1.5) vs NEW VISION (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Polymarket is pricing the **NEW VISION vs Benched gods** contract at **100% YES** right now, so the market is treating a NEW VISION win as fully reflected in the conditional tokens on Polygon and settled in USDC unless the match is not completed under the market rules. [4]
That extreme print is much firmer than the mixed historical framing around these teams suggests. NEW VISION beat Benched gods **2–0** in a CCT Europe 2026 Challengers match in May, which gives traders a direct recent head-to-head result in the same BO3 format. [1][3] By contrast, a separate community preview on Strafe had Benched gods ahead with **73.6%** of votes for that Group C meeting, showing that crowd sentiment outside Polymarket has not been uniform. [2]
For traders, the main catalysts are straightforward: confirmation the series actually starts, whether either roster fields a late substitute, and whether the CCT bracket or admin desk posts any schedule change before the settlement window closes. Because the market resolves to **50-50** if the match is cancelled, tied, or delayed beyond seven days without a winner, any disruption to a normal completed BO3 matters as much as the result itself. The live Polymarket contract page shows the market still active with substantial volume, so final settlement will depend on the recorded official outcome rather than pre-match chatter. [4]
Methodology
This page reviews Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Benched gods (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #6 Group C across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Benched gods (BO3) - C… on PolyGram
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