Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC København O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC København O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Lyngby BK O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Lyngby BK O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC København 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC København O/U 2.5 | 99% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 99% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 99% |
| FC København 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 99% |
| FC København 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 99% |
| Lyngby BK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 63% |
| Lyngby BK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 63% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Lyngby BK O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 1% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| Lyngby BK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| Lyngby BK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| FC København (-1.5) | 0% |
| Lyngby BK (-1.5) | 0% |
| FC København (-2.5) | 0% |
| Lyngby BK (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| FC København 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
FC København v Lyngby BK is live on Polymarket as a **0% YES** “more markets” contract, so the current price says the market is assigning no chance to any additional listed outcome resolving true before the settlement window closes. Because this contract sits on Polygon and settles with conditional tokens funded in USDC, traders are not pricing the football result in the abstract; they are pricing whether the specific market conditions attached to this fixture are met.
The historical frame is straightforward: FC København have generally been the stronger side in this pairing, with recent head-to-head references in the public record showing Copenhagen winning 2-1 in one match and 3-1 in another previewed contest, which is the sort of baseline that usually supports a heavy favourite narrative rather than an upset or a volatile “more markets” slate.[2][1] For a Polymarket user, a 0% print typically implies either the market is already seen as effectively decided or there is little demand for optional sub-markets on top of the main fixture.
The main catalysts are operational rather than tactical: line-up announcements, any schedule change, and whether the relevant Superliga match state aligns with the contract’s listed dependencies before the 14:00 UTC settlement cut-off. Sofascore lists the fixture for 26 July 2026, which confirms the event timing that traders will be anchoring to when checking whether the on-chain conditions can still resolve as expected.[3]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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