Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| AZ (-1.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| AZ O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| AZ O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| AZ 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| AZ 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 1% |
| ADO Den Haag (-1.5) | 0% |
| AZ (-2.5) | 0% |
| ADO Den Haag (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| AZ O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| ADO Den Haag O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| ADO Den Haag O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| ADO Den Haag O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| AZ 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| AZ 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| ADO Den Haag 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| ADO Den Haag 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| ADO Den Haag 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| ADO Den Haag 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
AZ vs ADO Den Haag is pricing at **100% YES** on Polymarket, so the contract is trading as if the listed condition for this “more markets” slate is already locked in, even though settlement still runs until 2026-08-08T19:00:00Z. On Polymarket, that exposure sits in **USDC** on **Polygon** and resolves through conditional tokens, so the practical question for users is not the football result in the abstract but whether the market’s exact settlement criteria are satisfied by the final match data.
The football backdrop is a straightforward home-favourite set-up: AZ were widely framed as the stronger side going into the Eredivisie opener, with previews leaning to a home win and often a multi-goal game, while head-to-head records also tilt towards AZ. FotMob lists AZ’s recent head-to-head record at 16 wins to 4 for ADO Den Haag, with 3 draws, and other previews pointed to AZ carrying the stronger attacking outlook at AFAS Stadion.[3][5][17] In comparable Dutch league match markets, a 100% price usually reflects either a confirmed, binary match condition or a fully resolved path in the on-chain market mechanics rather than a live view on who looks better on the pitch.
For traders, the useful catalysts are the official match feed, line-up confirmations, and any league or club clarification on what counts for this specific market before the settlement window closes. AZ’s own match coverage and live-score services show the fixture at AFAS Stadion with standard kick-off timing and lineup publication close to the start, so any late change to the scoreline, statistical provider, or market rules would be the main thing to watch.[7][9][11] If a “more markets” contract is tied to ancillary match events rather than the final result, the decisive dependency is the official data source used by Polymarket’s resolution process, not pre-match odds or crowd sentiment.
Methodology
This page reviews AZ vs. ADO Den Haag - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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