Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
90% | 10% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
90% | 10% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 90% |
| Morocco O/U 0.5 | 79% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 72% |
| O/U 1.5 | 69% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 66% |
| Canada O/U 0.5 | 59% |
| Morocco 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 58% |
| Morocco 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score | 47% |
| Morocco O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| O/U 2.5 | 42% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 39% |
| Canada 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 39% |
| Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 32% |
| Team to Advance | 30% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| Will the Match Go to Extra Time? | 28% |
| Morocco (-1.5) | 25% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 23% |
| O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Morocco 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 22% |
| Canada O/U 1.5 | 21% |
| Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? | 20% |
| Morocco O/U 2.5 | 18% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 17% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 16% |
| Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 14% |
| Morocco (-2.5) | 10% |
| O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| Canada 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 9% |
| Canada (-1.5) | 7% |
| Canada 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 6% |
| Canada O/U 2.5 | 5% |
| Morocco (-3.5) | 3% |
| O/U 5.5 | 3% |
| Canada (-2.5) | 1% |
| Morocco (-4.5) | 1% |
| O/U 6.5 | 1% |
| Canada (-3.5) | 0% |
| Canada (-4.5) | 0% |
| Canada (-5.5) | 0% |
| Morocco (-5.5) | 0% |
| O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| O/U 8.5 | 0% |
Market context
The Canada vs. Morocco - More Markets prediction market currently prices this outcome at 90% YES. More markets for the FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for July 4 at 1:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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