Norway vs. England

Platform comparison

Market context

On Saturday, 11 July 2026, Norway will face England in the FIFA World Cup quarter-final at Miami Stadium, with the crowd-implied probability of a Norway win currently sitting at 24% on Polymarket. This contract, traded in USDC on the Polygon network using conditional tokens, prices Norway as the underdog despite their stunning Round of 16 upset over Brazil, where Erling Haaland scored twice to eliminate the five-time champions for the first time in Norway’s World Cup history[2][3]. England, meanwhile, survived a chaotic 3-2 victory against Mexico at Estadio Azteca, with Jude Bellingham netting two goals and Harry Kane converting a penalty to secure their place[4][6]. Historical parallels suggest that teams overcoming such formidable opponents in the Round of 16 often carry momentum, yet England’s defensive resilience and Bellingham’s clutch performances have repeatedly defied expectations in knockout football, framing the current 24% probability as a reflection of Norway’s unfamiliarity at this stage rather than a lack of quality[1][13].

Traders should monitor pre-match squad announcements for both sides, particularly regarding Haaland’s fitness after his brace and England’s potential rotation following their exhausting match against Mexico, as fatigue could influence the outcome[8]. The match schedule confirms the game kicks off at 19:00 GMT (22:00 BST) on Saturday, with all betting markets closing at the settlement window of 21:00:00Z on the same day[7][8]. Recent coverage from BBC Sport highlights that England now have five days of rest to prepare, while Norway must manage the psychological weight of their historic run against a seasoned English squad[6]. With odds showing England as slight favourites at -105 ML and Norway at +300, the on-chain price of 24% reflects a cautious market stance, awaiting confirmation of line-ups and tactical adjustments before the final whistle[5]. The US market will broadcast the match on Fox and FS1, ensuring global visibility for this pivotal clash[7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Norway vs. England across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.