Norway vs. England - More Markets

Platform comparison

Market context

On Sunday 5 July 2026, Norway stunned Brazil 2–1 in the Round of 16 while England survived a chaotic 3–2 win over Mexico in Mexico City, setting up their FIFA World Cup quarter-final clash on Saturday 11 July at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. This match, scheduled for 5:00 PM ET, is the underlying event for the prediction contract currently priced at 9% YES on Polymarket, reflecting the on-chain conditional tokens settled in USDC on the Polygon network.

Historically, knockout matches between these sides have rarely produced extra time or penalties, yet the 9% probability implies traders are betting on a high likelihood of “more markets” – meaning the game will extend beyond normal time. Comparable cases from recent World Cups show that when top-tier teams meet in quarter-finals with contrasting styles (Norway’s Haaland-led attack versus England’s structured defence), the probability of extra time rises to 25–30%, as seen in the 27.9% simulation outcome for England vs Mexico [1]. The current 9% price suggests the market is underweighting this historical trend.

Traders should monitor the official quarter-final fixture confirmation from England Football, which was published on 6 July confirming the Miami venue and 10:00 PM BST kick-off [5]. Key catalysts include any late injury news for Haaland or Kane, weather updates for Miami, and the final squad lists released 24 hours before the match. The Opta supercomputer’s pre-match simulations for similar quarter-finals indicate a 24% chance of extra time when Brazil faced Norway [1], a figure that could shift the market price if confirmed for this fixture.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Norway vs. England - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.