United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina - Halftime Result

Platform comparison

Market context

The United States men’s national team faces Bosnia and Herzegovina in a FIFA World Cup Round of 32 knockout match at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara on 1 July 2026, with the contest kicking off at 8:00 PM ET. This is the USMNT’s first knockout game of the 2026 tournament after finishing top of Group D, while Bosnia qualified as a third-placed team following a win over Qatar.

Historically, the USMNT has not won its first two World Cup matches since 1990, but this year they achieved that feat with a plus-five goal difference, defeating Paraguay 4–1 and Australia 2–0. The two sides have met three times previously, with the US winning twice and drawing once; their last encounter was a 2021 friendly where the US secured a 1–0 victory. Current modelling suggests a 47% chance of a US win, a 36% draw probability, and a 17% chance for Bosnia, with FourBet assigning a 37% probability to a halftime draw—higher than the US leading at 33% or Bosnia at 30%[1].

Traders should monitor final squad announcements, confirmed line-ups, and any pre-match injury updates, as these directly impact conditional token outcomes on Polymarket’s USDC/Polygon infrastructure. Recent coverage from Al Jazeera notes Opta’s supercomputer forecasts a 67.5% US win probability and a 76.6% chance of progression, though market pricing currently reflects a more cautious 38% YES for a US halftime lead[4]. Kick-off is set for 5:00 PM PT, with broadcast available on FOX in the US and BBC/ITV in the UK[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina - Halftime Result across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.