Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| ITF Bacau: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Stefan Adrian Andreescu | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| ITF Bacau: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Stefan Adrian Andreescu Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| ITF Bacau: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Stefan Adrian Andreescu Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| ITF Bacau: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Stefan Adrian Andreescu Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| ITF Bacau: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Stefan Adrian Andreescu Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| ITF Bacau: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Stefan Adrian Andreescu Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| ITF Bacau: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Stefan Adrian Andreescu Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| ITF Bacau: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Stefan Adrian Andreescu Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| ITF Bacau: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Stefan Adrian Andreescu Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| ITF Bacau: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Stefan Adrian Andreescu Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| ITF Bacau: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Stefan Adrian Andreescu Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| ITF Bacau: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Stefan Adrian Andreescu Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| ITF Bacau: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Stefan Adrian Andreescu Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| ITF Bacau: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Stefan Adrian Andreescu Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to itf bacau: radu mihai papoe vs stefan adrian andreescu. This market refers to the tennis match between Radu Mihai Papoe and Stefan Adrian Andreescu in the ITF Men Bacau, originally scheduled for July 24, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Rad…
Methodology
We track ITF Bacau: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Stefan Adrian Andreescu across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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