Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 86% |
| Gangwon FC O/U 0.5 | 82% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 80% |
| Both Teams to Score | 76% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 69% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 O/U 1.5 | 66% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 59% |
| O/U 2.5 | 53% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 52% |
| Gangwon FC O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Gangwon FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Gangwon FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Gangwon FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Gangwon FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 O/U 2.5 | 45% |
| Gangwon FC O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 18% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 (-1.5) | 13% |
| O/U 5.5 | 11% |
| Gangwon FC (-2.5) | 8% |
| O/U 4.5 | 8% |
| Gangwon FC (-1.5) | 7% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 (-2.5) | 5% |
Market context
Gangwon’s meeting with Bucheon FC 1995 is priced at about **7% YES** on Polymarket today, which is the market’s on-chain view of whether the contract’s *more markets* condition resolves as true by the 2026-08-01 10:30 UTC settlement cut-off. Because Polymarket contracts settle in **USDC** on **Polygon** through conditional tokens, that price reflects where traders are willing to buy and sell after fees, liquidity, and the exact resolution rules are taken into account, not a pure match-winner forecast.
For context, the head-to-head has been tight: across 13 meetings, Bucheon have 6 wins, Gangwon 5, and 2 draws, with the most recent league meeting ending **0-0** on 18 March 2026.[2][4][15] Recent form also points to low-scoring margins rather than open games, with both sides repeatedly landing under 2.5 goals in recent samples and Gangwon’s last few competitive results including draws and one-goal matches.[4][6][7][20] That is the sort of profile that can keep a conditional “more markets” contract from moving much unless the underlying match produces an unusual event sequence.
The main trader catalysts are the **official line-ups**, any late **injury or rotation news**, and whether the match runs cleanly to the scheduled kick-off and settlement timing, since Polymarket’s outcome depends on the exact event conditions being met. Bucheon’s 29 July cup win and Gangwon’s late-July league outing mean short-rest selection choices matter, especially if either side rotates or changes formation before kick-off.[11] Live football trackers had the fixture listed for 1 August, which supports the stated schedule, but the market’s final resolution will depend on the specific rules attached to the contract rather than the headline fixture alone.[1][3][12]
Methodology
This page reviews Gangwon FC vs. Bucheon FC 1995 - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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