Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
71% | 29% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
71% | 29% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 3.5 Games | 71% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3? | 64% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 63% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 62% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 57% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 56% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 56% |
| Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) | 53% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 52% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 52% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 52% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4? | 52% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 5? | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 49% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 49% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? | 47% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 5? | 47% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 46% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 46% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? | 46% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 43% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 43% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 43% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 43% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 43% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 43% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 43% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 43% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 43% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 43% |
| Game 3 Winner | 40% |
| Game 1 Winner | 39% |
| Game 2 Winner | 39% |
| Game 4 Winner | 39% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 34% |
| Match Winner | 30% |
| Game Handicap: DK (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
Market context
Market consensus: 71% chance of lol: karmine corp vs dplus kia (bo5) - esports world cup playoffs. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the LoL Grand final match between Karmine Corp and Dplus KIA in the Esports World Cup Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 19 at 8:30AM ET. This market wil…
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade LoL: Karmine Corp vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - Esports World… on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →