Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
91% | 9% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
91% | 9% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 91% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 10% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 10% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 10% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
Market context
Polymarket’s contract is pricing **0% YES** for Solary’s win in this LFL regular-season BO1, which means the market is treating Joblife as the effective side today in USDC terms on Polygon, through the usual conditional-token settlement path. The underlying fixture is a one-map League of Legends match between Solary and Joblife, scheduled for the regular phase of the 2026 French League Summer season. [1]
That zero print sits well outside the kind of pre-match pricing seen in comparable LFL meetings, where Solary have previously been booked as the stronger side rather than the long shot. In a 2025 head-to-head archive, the matchup was listed as a BO1 regular-season game, and a separate betting preview for a Solary-Joblife meeting showed Solary around 1.36 to win against Joblife at 2.93, which is the opposite of a 0% Solary market read. [2][3] For a Polymarket user, the key point is that the contract resolves only on the match outcome, while non-completion, cancellation, or a delayed no-decision case can push settlement to 50-50 under the market rules.
The main catalysts are operational rather than macro: whether the broadcast starts on schedule, whether the teams field confirmed line-ups, and whether any last-minute league ruling affects the result. A live match listing places Solary v Joblife at 19:00 UTC on 22 July 2026, which is close enough to the settlement window that any delay, technical pause, or administrative change matters for conditional-token holders watching for an outright winner versus a fallback resolution. [1]
Methodology
We track LoL: Solary vs Joblife (BO1) - LFL Regular Season across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade LoL: Solary vs Joblife (BO1) - LFL Regular Season on PolyGram
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