Club Puebla vs. CD Guadalajara - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this Puebla–Guadalajara exact-score contract at **5% YES**, which implies traders assign a low but non-trivial chance to the listed scoreline landing in regulation plus stoppage time. On Polymarket, the position settles in USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens, so the only thing that matters is the final 90-minute score; extra time and penalties do not count, and any unlisted result rolls into *Any Other Score*.

The market is best read against the recent head-to-head pattern and the narrowness of exact-score markets. Guadalajara beat Puebla 5-0 in April 2026, while ESPN also shows Puebla losing 0-2 to Guadalajara in September 2025, and head-to-head databases show Guadalajara has generally had the stronger recent record in the fixture.[17][16][11] Even so, exact scores are inherently low-frequency outcomes: a 5% price is more consistent with a single specific scoreline than with a broad view of who is likelier to win, especially in a match where 0-0, 1-0, 1-1 and 2-1 type results usually absorb most of the probability mass.[11][18]

For traders, the practical catalysts are confirmation of kickoff, starting line-ups and any late schedule changes before the settlement window closes. The market description says postponement keeps it open until the match is completed, so the key dependency is whether the game is played on schedule and reaches full time; SofiaScore and ESPN both list the fixture for 31 July 2026, which is the main reference point, while live score providers will update once line-ups and the scoreline are known.[1][14][4] Because this is an exact-score contract, even a Guadalajara win is not enough unless the final tally matches the listed outcome exactly, which is why late team-news and early scoring patterns can move the contract sharply.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Club Puebla vs. CD Guadalajara - Exact Score across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.