Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees

Platform comparison

Market context

The Pittsburgh Pirates and New York Yankees are trading at about **37% YES** on Polymarket, so the market is currently pricing the Pirates as a clear underdog in the 22 July 1:35 PM ET game. On Polymarket, that price sits on-chain in **USDC** on **Polygon**, with the outcome represented through conditional tokens that settle only once the game result is official.

That 37% level implies the Yankees are being given the heavier side of the contest, which is consistent with how baseball markets usually react when one team is perceived to have the stronger line-up, deeper bullpen, or better starting pitching slot. In past MLB single-game markets, moves often cluster around the confirmed pitcher announcement and late lineup news rather than the broad team name alone, because those inputs materially change win probability once the market can digest them.

For traders, the main catalysts are the confirmed starting pitchers, any late scratches, and whether the game starts on time or is pushed back. The market rules also matter: if the game is postponed, it stays open until completion; if it is cancelled with no make-up or ends tied, it resolves **50-50**. That means the contract is not just a pure read on who wins, but also on whether the scheduled July 22 fixture is completed under the official MLB result used for settlement.

Sources: 1

Methodology

We track Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.