Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Columbus Crew O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| New York City FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| New York City FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| New York City FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Columbus Crew 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| New York City FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Columbus Crew (-1.5) | 0% |
| New York City FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Columbus Crew (-2.5) | 0% |
| New York City FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Columbus Crew O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Columbus Crew O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| New York City FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Columbus Crew 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Columbus Crew 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| New York City FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Columbus Crew 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| New York City FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Columbus Crew faced New York City FC on 22 July, and Polymarket’s **0% YES** pricing in the “More markets” contract implies the market is not assigning any chance to an additional listed outcome as of the current book state. On Polymarket, that price is expressed through **USDC** positions on **Polygon**, with conditional tokens settling only if the market’s specific “more markets” condition resolves true by the end of the settlement window.
For context, the underlying fixture has tended to be competitive rather than lopsided: in the 25 recorded head-to-head meetings cited by FootyStats, New York City FC won 7 and Columbus Crew won 10, which is the sort of balance that usually keeps secondary MLS prop markets sensitive to late information rather than early conviction.[2] Live match pages also pointed to a relatively modest goal expectation, with Flashscore’s in-game preview showing a score prediction of **under 4.5 goals**.[1]
For traders watching the contract mechanics, the practical catalysts are any official post-match market definitions, delayed data feeds, and whether the exchange’s settlement source can unambiguously confirm the “more markets” condition before 22 July at 23:30 UTC. In these event-driven markets, a late correction to match metadata, a postponed start, or a source discrepancy can matter more than the football itself because the token settles on the recorded outcome, not on opinion about the game.[1]
Methodology
This page reviews Columbus Crew vs. New York City FC - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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