Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
97% | 3% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
97% | 3% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 97% |
| Seattle Sounders FC O/U 0.5 | 91% |
| O/U 1.5 | 86% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 85% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 80% |
| Seattle Sounders FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 74% |
| O/U 2.5 | 68% |
| Seattle Sounders FC O/U 1.5 | 68% |
| Portland Timbers O/U 0.5 | 68% |
| Seattle Sounders FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 66% |
| Both Teams to Score | 62% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 57% |
| Portland Timbers 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| O/U 3.5 | 44% |
| Seattle Sounders FC (-1.5) | 40% |
| Portland Timbers 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 40% |
| Seattle Sounders FC O/U 2.5 | 39% |
| Seattle Sounders FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 39% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 34% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| Portland Timbers O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| Seattle Sounders FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| O/U 4.5 | 26% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 26% |
| Seattle Sounders FC (-2.5) | 22% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| Portland Timbers 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 15% |
| O/U 5.5 | 13% |
| Portland Timbers O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| Portland Timbers 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 9% |
| Portland Timbers (-1.5) | 6% |
| Portland Timbers (-2.5) | 2% |
Market context
Market consensus: 97% chance of seattle sounders fc vs. portland timbers - more markets. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. More markets for the MLS game, scheduled for July 16 at 10:30 PM ET.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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