Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 21.5 | 95% |
| O/U 23.5 | 94% |
| O/U 25.5 | 91% |
| O/U 24.5 | 90% |
| O/U 26.5 | 90% |
| O/U 27.5 | 87% |
| O/U 28.5 | 87% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 6.5 | 87% |
| O/U 29.5 | 85% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 82% |
| O/U 30.5 | 81% |
| Steelers O/U 10.5 | 81% |
| O/U 31.5 | 80% |
| O/U 32.5 | 78% |
| Falcons O/U 10.5 | 76% |
| O/U 33.5 | 74% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 74% |
| Steelers O/U 16.5 | 73% |
| Steelers O/U 17.5 | 73% |
| 2H O/U 14.5 | 72% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 70% |
| Spread -1.5 | 69% |
| O/U 34.5 | 69% |
| O/U 35.5 | 67% |
| Spread -2.5 | 66% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 66% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 65% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 65% |
| O/U 36.5 | 64% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 64% |
| Steelers O/U 20.5 | 61% |
| O/U 37.5 | 60% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 11.5 | 60% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 6.5 | 59% |
| 2H O/U 17.5 | 59% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 59% |
| O/U 38.5 | 58% |
| Spread -3.5 | 57% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 57% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 57% |
| O/U 39.5 | 56% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 56% |
| Spread -4.5 | 55% |
| Falcons O/U 13.5 | 55% |
| Steelers O/U 19.5 | 55% |
| Falcons O/U 16.5 | 53% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 53% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 53% |
| Spread -5.5 | 53% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 13.5 | 53% |
| Steelers O/U 22.5 | 52% |
| O/U 40.5 | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 8.5 | 51% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| Safety? | 51% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 51% |
| Steelers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| Falcons Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Falcons O/U 26.5 | 51% |
| Steelers O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Steelers O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Steelers O/U 26.5 | 51% |
| Steelers O/U 34.5 | 51% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 20.5 | 51% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 15.5 | 51% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Falcons Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Falcons vs. Steelers: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Falcons O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Falcons O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Falcons O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Steelers O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Steelers O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 8.5 | 49% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 20.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 49% |
| Falcons O/U 27.5 | 49% |
| Falcons O/U 30.5 | 49% |
| Steelers O/U 30.5 | 49% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 12.5 | 49% |
| Spread -6.5 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 19-24 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 13-18 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 48% |
| Steelers O/U 23.5 | 48% |
| O/U 41.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 47% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 25+ | 47% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 7-12 | 47% |
| Steelers Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 45% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 45% |
| Steelers O/U 25.5 | 45% |
| O/U 42.5 | 45% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 45% |
| 2H O/U 20.5 | 45% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 10.5 | 44% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 44% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 7-13 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 43% |
| O/U 43.5 | 42% |
| Falcons O/U 19.5 | 42% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 14-20 | 42% |
| Spread -7.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 42% |
| Falcons O/U 25.5 | 41% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 41% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 1-6 | 41% |
| Falcons Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 41% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 21+ | 40% |
| Spread -8.5 | 40% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 39% |
| Spread -9.5 | 39% |
| O/U 44.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 37% |
| Falcons O/U 20.5 | 37% |
| O/U 45.5 | 36% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 35% |
| 2H O/U 26.5 | 34% |
| 1H Moneyline | 34% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| 2H O/U 23.5 | 33% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| Spread -10.5 | 33% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 16.5 | 33% |
| O/U 47.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| O/U 46.5 | 31% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 31% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 19.5 | 31% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 20.5 | 31% |
| Falcons vs. Steelers | 30% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| O/U 48.5 | 30% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 30% |
| O/U 49.5 | 29% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 29% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 29% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 29% |
| Falcons O/U 22.5 | 28% |
| Steelers O/U 28.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 28% |
| Spread -13.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 28% |
| Spread -1.5 | 26% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 26% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 26% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 25% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| Spread -2.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 24% |
| Spread -14.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 23% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 22% |
| Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 22% |
| O/U 50.5 | 22% |
| Spread -16.5 | 21% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| O/U 51.5 | 20% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 20% |
| Spread -4.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 20% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 20% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 20% |
| O/U 52.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 19% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 19% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 19% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| O/U 53.5 | 18% |
| Spread -5.5 | 18% |
| Spread -17.5 | 18% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 18% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 17% |
| Spread -19.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 16% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| O/U 54.5 | 16% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 13.5 | 16% |
| O/U 55.5 | 15% |
| Spread -6.5 | 15% |
| Spread -19.5 | 15% |
| Spread -21.5 | 15% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| Spread -17.5 | 14% |
| Spread -20.5 | 14% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 1-6 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 13% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 13% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| O/U 56.5 | 13% |
| O/U 58.5 | 13% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 13% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 20.5 | 13% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| O/U 57.5 | 10% |
| Spread -8.5 | 10% |
| Spread -21.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 16.5 | 10% |
| O/U 59.5 | 9% |
| Spread -9.5 | 9% |
| Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 9% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| O/U 60.5 | 9% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 9% |
| Falcons O/U 28.5 | 9% |
| O/U 61.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 8% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| O/U 64.5 | 7% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 19.5 | 7% |
| Spread -13.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| O/U 62.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| Spread -20.5 | 4% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 1% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 95% YES probability for Falcons vs. Steelers. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 13 at 1:00PM ET: If Falcons wins, the market will resolve to "Falcons". If Steelers wins, the market will resolve to "Steelers". If the game is postpo…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $135K.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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