Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| CD Garcilaso O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CD Garcilaso O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Cajamarca O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CD Garcilaso 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CD Garcilaso 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Cajamarca 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CD Garcilaso 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| CD Garcilaso (-1.5) | 0% |
| FC Cajamarca (-1.5) | 0% |
| CD Garcilaso (-2.5) | 0% |
| FC Cajamarca (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CD Garcilaso O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Cajamarca O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Cajamarca O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Cajamarca 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FC Cajamarca 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CD Garcilaso 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FC Cajamarca 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Polymarket currently prices this contract at **0% YES**, so the market is assigning no value to additional markets being resolved in the expected way before the 2026-07-27 settlement window closes, even though the underlying fixture is the Peru Liga 1 match between Deportivo Garcilaso and FC Cajamarca. On-chain, that means the position is still just a bundle of USDC-backed conditional tokens on Polygon, with the quote reflecting the crowd’s view of the specific contract language rather than the football result itself.
For context, the closest recent comparable meeting finished **1-1** at Estadio Héroes de San Ramón on 9 February 2026, which is useful mainly as a reminder that these teams have already produced a draw in league play this year.[1][2] For a “more markets” contract, the historical scoreline matters less than whether the event organiser, data source, or settlement rules create an identifiable trigger for extra markets to be posted and counted before the deadline; a 0% price usually indicates traders see that trigger as absent, already closed, or too remote.
The main catalysts to watch are straightforward: official schedule updates, any change to the match timing, and whether Polymarket’s market rules define “more markets” by a specific source or publication process rather than by the match alone. Because settlement depends on the contract mechanics, not the fixture in the abstract, any late announcement around the league schedule or market creation criteria could matter more than team form.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
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