CD Los Chankas vs. Sport Boys Association

Platform comparison

Market context

CD Los Chankas, currently second in the Peru Liga 1, face Sport Boys Association at Estadio Los Chankas on Sunday, 19 July 2026, with kick-off at 16:00 GMT. On Polymarket, this contract trades at 100% YES for a Los Chankas victory, a price that ignores the 51% win probability implied by bookmakers and the 40% chance of a draw or loss suggested by odds data [1][11].

Historically, contracts pricing a home win at 100% in Liga 1 have settled incorrectly when the favourite’s odds sit above -110, as bookmakers retain a margin that Polymarket’s conditional tokens often overlook. In comparable Clausura openers, second-placed teams with -104 odds have lost or drawn in 38% of cases, meaning the current pricing assumes an outcome bookmakers explicitly doubt [1][3]. The 1-0 correct score, favoured by multiple algorithms at 19% probability, remains the most likely single result but does not guarantee a win [6].

Traders should monitor the final squad announcements for Los Chankas, particularly the status of L. Nequecaur, who missed a penalty in recent action and could influence goal margins [8]. The match is part of the Clausura opener, where continental qualification spots are contested, adding pressure that may affect Sport Boys’ defensive line [3]. No late injury reports have been published as of Monday, 20 July, but any withdrawal of key attackers could shift the over/under 2.5 goals market, currently priced at 1.9 odds for over [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track CD Los Chankas vs. Sport Boys Association across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.