FC Cajamarca vs. ADC Juan Pablo II College

Platform comparison

Market context

FC Cajamarca and ADC Juan Pablo II College are set to face off tonight at 18:00 UTC in a Peru Liga 1 clash at Estadio Héroes de San Ramón, yet Polymarket prices the YES contract at 0% despite the match being live. On-chain, this zero probability reflects a market that has already resolved the outcome as a NO, likely because the game has finished or the settlement condition has been triggered before the window closed. The contract trades in USDC on Polygon using conditional tokens, meaning liquidity is frozen once the event resolves, and the current pricing suggests the market believes the YES condition cannot be met.

Historically, Peru Liga 1 matches involving lower-tier clubs like Juan Pablo II College often see volatile scoring, with recent data showing a 3–3 draw between these sides on 31 January 2026 [2][5]. However, a 0% YES price is not typical for an open fixture; it usually appears when the event is post-resolution or when the settlement criteria explicitly exclude the outcome being bet on. Comparable cases on Polymarket show that when a match ends before the settlement window, prices collapse to 0% or 100% instantly, reflecting the on-chain resolution mechanism rather than pre-match odds.

Traders should watch for official match reports confirming the final score and any late announcements regarding settlement delays, though the 0% price implies the outcome is already known. FOX Sports lists the game as having occurred today at 6:00 PM local time, aligning with the 18:00 UTC start [3][4]. With the settlement window ending at 18:00 UTC on 17 July 2026, and the current time being 21:29 UTC, the event is past its resolution point, making further price movement unlikely unless the platform updates its resolution status.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.