Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Wisla Plock (-1.5) | 0% |
| Widzew Lodz (-1.5) | 0% |
| Wisla Plock (-2.5) | 0% |
| Widzew Lodz (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Wisla Plock O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Wisla Plock O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Wisla Plock O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Widzew Lodz O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Widzew Lodz O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Widzew Lodz O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Wisla Plock 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Wisla Plock 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Widzew Lodz 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Widzew Lodz 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Wisla Plock 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Wisla Plock 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Widzew Lodz 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Widzew Lodz 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Wisła Płock against Widzew Łódź is the real-world Ekstraklasa fixture behind this Polymarket contract, and the market is pricing the “More Markets” conditional token at **0% YES** today, implying no additional qualifying market outcome is expected to resolve inside the settlement rules. On Polymarket, that price sits on USDC collateral on Polygon, with the contract settling through conditional tokens rather than the match itself in the abstract.
For traders reading that 0% print, the closest historical guide is the pair’s mixed but not especially one-sided head-to-head record. Across recent meetings, sources report Widzew with a narrow edge overall, while the latest listed Ekstraklasa match between them ended 1–1 in February 2026; other H2H datasets show 2 wins for Wisła, 3 for Widzew and 2 draws over seven games. That pattern argues for keeping the market focused on contract mechanics and listing scope, not on a clean sporting favourite narrative.[2][11]
The main catalysts are administrative rather than tactical: whether Polymarket has already opened, added, or excluded any sibling markets for the fixture before the 31 July settlement window closes, and whether the exchange has refreshed settlement language tied to the match card. Match data feeds also matter because live score providers show the fixture as active with shots and big chances tracked, so any delay, correction, or post-match settlement adjustment could affect how “More Markets” is resolved on-chain.[1][9][10]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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