Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FCSB O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FCSB O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FCV Farul Constanţa O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FCV Farul Constanţa O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FCV Farul Constanţa 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FCV Farul Constanţa 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FCSB 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FCSB 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FCSB (-1.5) | 0% |
| FCV Farul Constanţa (-1.5) | 0% |
| FCSB (-2.5) | 0% |
| FCV Farul Constanţa (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FCSB O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FCV Farul Constanţa O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FCSB 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FCSB 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FCV Farul Constanţa 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FCV Farul Constanţa 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
FCSB face FCV Farul Constanţa in a SuperLiga meeting that Polymarket is currently pricing at **0% YES**, so the contract is effectively saying there is no live expectation of a successful “more markets” settlement from the present order flow. On Polymarket, users are buying and selling **USDC** positions on **Polygon**, with the final outcome determined by the market’s resolution rules rather than the football scoreline alone.
The historical frame is not especially supportive of a dramatic repricing from here. Recent pre-match data for the same fixture has generally leaned towards FCSB, with one 2026 preview putting FCSB ahead on head-to-head and form, and another booking-style model pricing them as a clear favourite, while still leaving room for low-scoring scorelines such as 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1.[5][9][12] Sofascore also lists the match as a normal SuperLiga fixture with standard pre-match context, which matters because “more markets” contracts often move less on the headline winner and more on whether additional sub-markets are officially posted and whether they resolve cleanly before the settlement cut-off.[8]
For a trader, the main catalysts are the final match-day information flow: confirmed line-ups about an hour before kick-off, any late injuries or rotation, and whether the match page or related market set is updated before the settlement window closes.[1] Recent previews suggest both sides have been analysed with expected starting XIs and no obvious absentee shock, but that can change quickly on deadline day.[5][7] Because the market settles on the contract’s specified mechanics, the key dependency is not just what happens on the pitch, but whether the relevant additional market condition is satisfied and captured on-chain in time.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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