St Johnstone FC vs. Kilmarnock FC - More Markets

Platform comparison

Market context

St Johnstone v Kilmarnock is trading at **44% YES** on Polymarket today, which for a “more markets” contract means the market is pricing a slightly below-even chance that the match generates additional settlement-relevant outcomes beyond the base game state, with the position held in USDC on Polygon and resolved through conditional tokens. With the game scheduled for 2 August, the contract is still being judged on pre-match information rather than live score effects, so the key read is how tightly traders think the fixture will stay within the ordinary range of football outcomes.

Comparable head-to-head data points lean mixed rather than one-sided. FootyStats shows St Johnstone have won 19 of 38 meetings, Kilmarnock 14, with five draws, while ESPN’s recent matchup log shows Kilmarnock taking the last league meeting 3-1 in February 2025 and St Johnstone alternating wins and losses across the prior season.[4][13] Sky Sports also notes Kilmarnock have been in stronger recent form, including wins over Livingston, Dundee and St Mirren in May 2026, while St Johnstone’s latest listed matches were in the Scottish Championship and Premier Sports Cup rather than the Premiership.[10][16]

For traders, the immediate catalysts are team news, confirmed line-ups and any late schedule changes before the 13:00 UTC settlement cutoff, because those determine whether the market should price a routine result or a more complex match state.[1][3] Recent reporting and live match pages indicate both clubs have already been active in pre-season and cup play, so the main dependency is final squad availability rather than a long injury list or fixture congestion shock.[10][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.