Independiente Medellín vs. CR Vasco da Gama

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this contract at **0% YES** today, which means the market is treating settlement as effectively dead for a positive outcome after the Copa Sudamericana tie between Independiente Medellín and CR Vasco da Gama played out to a 2-2 aggregate draw, with Medellín 2-2 Vasco in the first leg and the CONMEBOL fixture page recording the match at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.[1][2][3][4] On Polymarket, the position is settled in USDC through conditional tokens on Polygon, so the price reflects the crowd’s view of whether the market’s specific resolution condition can still be satisfied before the 2026-07-22T22:00:00Z window closes, not simply who looked stronger on the pitch.[1]

The cleanest historical read is that a 0% market usually appears when the result has already been decided by the underlying event or when the contract language leaves no realistic path to settlement. In football markets, comparable cases tend to collapse to zero once a match finishes and the required condition is no longer available, especially in knockout ties where aggregate score, venue, and advancement rules determine the outcome rather than a single isolated scoreline.[1][2][4] Sports Mole had Medellín as a narrow pre-match favourite, but that sort of pre-game model matters only before kick-off; once the game has completed, the market’s focus shifts to the exact settlement definition and whether any official correction, replay, or administrative change could alter it.[6]

A trader should watch CONMEBOL’s official match record, any post-match disciplinary notices, and whether the market wording depends on the final result, advancement, or a specific fixture state, because those are the only real catalysts left after full time.[1][3][4] If an official ruling changes the match status, that can move a contract even after the whistle, but absent a governing-body correction the on-chain price should remain anchored near zero until expiry.[1][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.