Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| IF Brommapojkarna O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Malmo FF O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Malmo FF O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| IF Brommapojkarna 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Malmo FF 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Malmo FF 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| IF Brommapojkarna (-1.5) | 0% |
| Malmo FF (-1.5) | 0% |
| IF Brommapojkarna (-2.5) | 0% |
| Malmo FF (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| IF Brommapojkarna O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| IF Brommapojkarna O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Malmo FF O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| IF Brommapojkarna 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| IF Brommapojkarna 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Malmo FF 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Malmo FF 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| IF Brommapojkarna 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Polymarket currently shows **0% YES** for this “more markets” contract, which means the market is not assigning any visible probability to a qualifying outcome even though the underlying Allsvenskan fixture, IF Brommapojkarna v Malmö FF, is scheduled for 2 August at 8:00 AM ET. On Polymarket, settlement runs through the event’s outcome data via **USDC** on **Polygon**, with the conditional token resolving only if the market’s specified extra condition is met, so traders are effectively pricing the precise match-related trigger rather than the headline fixture itself.
Historically, this pairing has leaned heavily towards Malmö FF, which explains why a zero bid can persist if the “more markets” condition is narrow or difficult to verify. Head-to-head records across recent data show Malmö with a dominant advantage, including 10 or 11 wins in the last 13 or 14 meetings depending on the source, while Brommapojkarna have taken only one of those matches and draws have been rare.[4][14][17] Recent meetings also produced plenty of goals, including a 3-2 Malmö win in July 2025 and a 2-1 Brommapojkarna win earlier that year, so traders have some precedent for both a Malmö edge and live volatility in scoreline-based side markets.[7][13]
For a Polymarket user, the key catalysts are the final team sheets, any late injury or rotation news, and the exact match data feed that the contract references, because those are what can change whether the conditional token resolves at all. Malmö’s recent league results have been mixed but still strong enough to keep them relevant in any goals or margin market, while Brommapojkarna arrive with a much less dominant recent head-to-head profile.[11][19] In practice, the trade often turns on whether the specified “more markets” condition is tied to goals, corners, cards, or another stat line, since each dependency settles differently even when the fixture itself is unchanged.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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